ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey – Q1 2026
New Year, New Job! UK Employment Market Rebounds in Q1
The latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS) reveals a Net Employment Outlook of +13% for Q1 2026 – up two points on the previous quarter, marking the first improvement since mid-2025. While still 16 points below last year’s high, this shift signals a return of confidence after months of uncertainty.
“The labour market is bouncing back, after a period of paralysis for British businesses unable to make decisions for fear of government-proposed labour market policy changes; the latest budget announcement has unleashed the pent-up demand so many job seekers had been waiting for,” said Michael Stull, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup UK. “A two-point rise to the Employment Outlook may seem modest, but it marks a notable shift in the UK’s trajectory. After months of negative rhetoric, we’re seeing a return of optimism to hiring intentions, with just the finalisation of the Employee Rights Bill left to springboard the economy further.”
Sector highlights:
- Construction & Real Estate (+24%) lead the recovery, driven by infrastructure investment and defence projects.
- Information (+26%) and Manufacturing (+15%) remain resilient as demand for digital capability and skilled labour grows.
- Hospitality (-9%) records the weakest outlook, impacted by rising wage costs and policy uncertainty.
Regional trends:
Northern Ireland tops the charts at +25%, while Scotland and Yorkshire & Humber follow at +21%. East shows the strongest quarterly growth, climbing to +9%. Wales and West Midlands report the sharpest declines.
As employers prepare for the Employee Rights Bill and navigate the rise of AI, mid-sized firms are leading the charge on upskilling and innovation. The UK labour market is entering 2026 with cautious optimism and a renewed focus on skills.
Find out more in the Q1 2026 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey report, featuring detailed insights on employer hiring intentions by industry, region and company size.
