Is The UK Labour Market Turning a Corner? Manpowergroup Research Predicts Hiring Surge Across Regions

• ManpowerGroup is cautiously optimistic about labour market rebound
• Hiring confidence rises cross the UK, with mid-sized businesses fuelling the outlook
• Growth returns as expansion plans and new ventures lift employer confidence

UK employers report an increase in hiring confidence for Q2 2026, with a Net Employment Outlook of 27% – a 125% rise on the previous quarter. This marks one of the sharpest quarterly uplifts in five years and indicates that hiring plans have strengthened broadly across the market. This is supported by early signs of business growth, with 47% of employers expanding and 26% moving into new areas that require additional roles.

Michael Stull, Managing Director, ManpowerGroup UK, says: “We’re seeing cautious optimism in the labour market. Beyond the rise in hiring confidence, there are early signs of recovery coming through in other parts of the economy. Employer sentiment is improving, GDP expectations are firming up and housing market indicators are stabilising. These are the kinds of movements that typically show up before we see shifts in real hiring activity. Having said this, the current geopolitical uncertainty may contribute to hesitancy, however the direction is encouraging and businesses have become used to navigating complex environments.”

From a global perspective, the UK’s position has also improved, ranking 23rd out of 42 global markets and 7th out of 19 European markets. The UK also shows the strongest quarter-on-quarter growth in Europe. Hiring expectations sit above the European average (21%) and just below the global average of 31%, positioning the UK alongside comparable growth markets such as Portugal (29%) and Spain (28%) and ahead of Italy (22%).

All major private‑sector industries signal stronger hiring plans this quarter, with elevated outlooks in Tech & IT services (44%) up 100% quarter-on-quarter, and Finance & insurance (38%, up 153%). Manufacturing, Information, Professional services, Trade & logistics and Construction & Real Estate also report notable quarter‑on‑quarter increases. Public Sector, Health & Social Services (12%) and Hospitality (6%) continue to improve from lower bases, though both remain below last year’s levels, signalling that these sectors are facing deep-rooted issues.

Net Employment Outlook		Q2 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026
Sectors	UK	31	12	27
	Construction & Real Estate	35	21	29
	Finance & Insurance	45	15	38
	Hospitality	45	-9	6
	Information	37	26	38
	Manufacturing	30	14	34
	Professional, Scientific & Technical Services	33	20	34
	Public Sector, Health & Social Services	29	4	12
	Trade & Logistics	21	10	27
	Utilities & Natural Resources	26	13	25
Speciality Sectors	Automotive	28	-8	15*
	Tech & IT Services	49	22	44

Hiring sentiment has strengthened across nearly every UK region, with the largest quarterly uplifts in the West Midlands (+700%) and the South West (+300%). Improvements are also seen in the North East, Eastern, North West, Yorkshire & Humber and London. Wales (9%) and the South East (14%) show quarterly gains but remain below their year‑on‑year comparators.

Stull continues: “This isn’t a London‑only story. Momentum is building across the industrial heartlands and coastal economies. Some areas are climbing back from a lower starting point, but the direction of travel matters as much as the level. Taken together, these signals point to a recovery that is broad, if uneven – and employers are starting to plan with more confidence as a result.”

Mid‑sized businesses are setting the pace for hiring in Q2, with the strongest outlooks among organisations with 250-999 employees and 50-249 employees. Gains are also evident for smaller firms (10-49 employees); fewer than 10 employees and mid‑large companies (1,000-4,999 employees). The only group with a negative outlook remains the largest employers – those with 5,000+ employees (−4%).

Net Employment Outlook		Q2 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026
Employee Size	Less than 10	18	10	18
	10 to 49	21	11	21
	50 to 249	33	18	33
	250 to 999	39	17	37
	1,000 to 4,999	29	12	21
	5,000 or more	17	-1	-4

Stull concludes: “As sentiment cautiously lifts, employers need to balance retention with hiring. Skills shortages remain high so the most sought-after candidates will be in demand. In a recovery that’s broad but uneven and driven largely by mid‑sized Britain, the organisations that will come through strongest are those that invest in their people and carry this shift from pessimism to progress into how they plan for the months ahead.”

## END##

References:

NOTES TO EDITORS

A ‘Net Employment Outlook’ is calculated by subtracting those employers who plan to reduce staffing levels from those who plan to hire staff. A positive result indicates that more employers plan to increase rather than decrease staffing levels; a negative result reflects the opposite. For international comparisons and visual library with graphs, visit manpowergroup.com.

About the Industry Sectors
ManpowerGroup has introduced an updated industry sector classification to ensure our insights more closely reflect today’s global economy. Beginning with this release, data will be reported across nine sectors: Construction & Real Estate; Finance & Insurance; Hospitality; Information; Manufacturing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Sector, Health & Social Services; and Trade & Logistics. Historical data has been reclassified to maintain consistency over time, and national and regional results remain unchanged.

Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Full survey results for each of the 42 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found in the ManpowerGroup Press Room at www.manpowergroup.com/meos In addition, all tables and graphs from the full report are available to be downloaded for use in publication or broadcast from the ManpowerGroup Web site at: http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos.cfm

About the Survey

The world leader in innovative workforce solutions, ManpowerGroup releases the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. It is the longest running, most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, polling 40,700 employers across 42 countries and territories. The survey serves as a bellwether of labour market trends and activities and is regularly used to inform the Bank of England’s Inflation Reports, as well as a regular data source for the European Commission, informing its EU Employment Situation and Social Outlook report, the Monthly Monitor. ManpowerGroup’s independent survey data is also sourced by financial analysts and economists around the world to help determine where labour markets are headed.

About ManpowerGroupUK

ManpowerGroup® (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organisations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for hundreds of thousands of organisations every year, providing them with skilled talent while finding meaningful, sustainable employment for millions of people across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands – Manpower, Experis, Brook Street and Talent Solutions – creates substantial value for candidates and clients across more than 75 countries and territories and has done so for over 75 years. We are recognised consistently for our diversity – as a best place to work for Women, Inclusion, Equality and Disability, and in 2025, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the 16th year – all confirming our position as the brand of choice for in-demand talent. For more information, visit www.manpowergroup.co.uk, or follow us on LinkedIn, Instagram, YouTube and Facebook. Survey responses were collected from January 1 to February 3, 2026.